According to figures from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), exports to the United States reached US$3.19bn in August 2026, up 12.1% from the same month a year earlier. However, MDIC director Herlon Brandão said this gain came mainly from higher prices rather than more goods shipped. The average export price to the US rose 8.6% while volumes fell 3.1%.
As a result, the apparent strength in August value data disguises a softer physical flow of goods. MDIC data show that from January to August 2026, exports to the US fell 9.7% in value to US$24.105bn, with a sharper 13.6% drop in volume over the period. This puts the August uptick in context: Brazil is still selling less to the US this year, even as prices improve.
In August, Brazil recorded a bilateral deficit of US$824m with the US. Imports from the country stood at US$4.014bn, up 1.1% year on year. For the year to date, Brazilian imports of US goods reached US$27.316bn, down 8.6% from 2025, leaving a cumulative deficit of US$3.211bn.
Higher prices mask weaker volumes to the US
The tariff shock is central to the shift. The Trump administration has imposed two additional duties on Brazilian exports: a 25% surcharge under a Section 301 investigation into Brazilian trade practices, and a 12.5% levy linked to forced labour enforcement. These can stack to a combined 37.5% on some products. Government estimates reported by local media indicate that roughly 15–18% of Brazil’s export basket to the US is directly hit by the 25% tariff alone. Broader analysis suggests around 23% of flows face some level of new duty.
In parallel, MDIC and analysts note that more than half of Brazil’s exports to the US remain exempt. Key items include beef, coffee and civil aircraft. Brandão highlighted that August’s export growth to the US was driven by a mix of higher prices and product composition. Major contributions came from aircraft and related equipment, beef, semi-finished iron and steel products, cement and construction materials, iron and steel tubes, cellulose and coffee.
Aircraft and beef are among the categories excluded from the new tariffs, softening the direct impact on some of Brazil’s most competitive export segments. Companies with exposure to these exempt lines are therefore better placed than industrial exporters facing surcharges on machinery, footwear or manufactured components.
One senior trade analyst put it plainly: ‘The August rebound in Brazil US exports is a price story, not a volume story, and it confirms that tariffs are reshaping where Brazilian producers look for growth rather than shutting them out of global demand.’
Is Europe becoming the swing market for Brazil?
While US-bound trade digested the tariffs, MDIC figures show that exports to the European Union surged in August. Sales to the EU reached US$5.82bn, up 46.4% year on year, with shipped volumes rising 30.3%. According to Brazilian press reports based on MDIC data, the main drivers included petroleum, copper ore and concentrates, soy, fuel oils, coffee, tobacco and beef.
In value terms, crude oil exports to the bloc totalled around US$1.33bn in August, rising more than a third from a year earlier. Copper ore sales jumped more than 280% to roughly US$686m. MDIC officials link this strong performance to a combination of favourable market conditions and the early effects of the Mercosur–EU trade agreement, which entered provisional application in 2026.
Brandão has noted that Brazil is highly competitive in many of these commodity segments and that international demand for fuels and copper is rising. This is supported by higher energy needs amid conflict in the Middle East and strong technology-sector demand for metals. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin has also pointed out that Brazil’s exports to the EU rose around 4% in the first 60 days of the agreement, underlining its potential to anchor diversification away from the US.
The broader trade picture remains positive. MDIC data show that Brazil’s overall trade balance posted a surplus of US$7.39bn in August, up 23.8% from August 2025. The cumulative surplus for January to August reached US$55.32bn, an increase of 28.2% year on year. This August result contributed to what has been a strong year for Brazil’s overall trade balance. Among Brazil’s main partners, the United States was the only one to register a bilateral deficit for Brazil in August, while exports to the EU and other regions, including China and the Middle East, delivered strong gains.
For investors, the message is clear. Tariffs are compressing margins and volumes in parts of Brazil US exports, but they are also accelerating a geographic shift that favours Europe and other commodity-hungry markets. Equity and credit investors in Brazilian agribusiness, industrials and logistics should track how exporters reweight their portfolios towards EU demand, how quickly the Mercosur–EU agreement expands tariff-free access, and whether any US–Brazil negotiations temper the current 37.5% surcharges on targeted goods. The next data releases from MDIC and any progress in talks between Brasília and Washington will show whether August’s pattern becomes a lasting reallocation of trade flows or a temporary price-driven blip.
Quick answers
According to MDIC figures, Brazil exported US$3.19bn to the United States in August 2026, a rise of 12.1% year on year, though this was driven by higher prices rather than greater volumes.
The Trump administration imposed a 25% surcharge under a Section 301 investigation and a 12.5% levy linked to forced labour enforcement, which can combine to a 37.5% duty on some Brazilian products.
Exports to the EU reached US$5.82bn in August 2026, up 46.4% year on year, with shipped volumes rising 30.3%, driven largely by petroleum, copper ore, soy, coffee and beef.
