Record exports meet a more complex trade map
Brazilian fruit exports reached US$1.45bn in 2025, the sector’s third consecutive record year, with values up 12% and shipment volumes up 19.6% versus 2024. According to Abrafrutas, which represents growers and exporters, the performance capped what it describes as a historic year for the industry.
The association now projects exports could approach US$2bn by 2028, supported by new market access in Europe and Asia and stronger promotion in existing destinations. That implies a moderate but steady growth path from the 2025 base, assuming no major trade shock.
The United States currently accounts for around 12% of Brazil’s fruit export revenues, making policy shifts in Washington a material driver for cash flow and margins. In early June, the US administration proposed a new punitive 25% tariff on selected Brazilian imports, citing alleged unfair practices in areas such as digital trade, illegal deforestation, anti-corruption enforcement and even Brazil’s instant payments system Pix.
Abrafrutas executive director Eduardo Brandão told Agrofy News that negotiations secured the exclusion of mangoes, bananas and papayas from the provisional tariff list, preserving some of Brazil’s best-known export lines. However, grapes, melons and watermelons remain at risk of a 25% duty if the US government confirms the measure. For a sector that already operates on tight logistics and price spreads, that would reprice part of the export portfolio overnight.
Brandão describes the current environment as one of instability, arguing that exporters need predictable rules to plan planting, investment and shipping schedules. The association is pressing Brasília for more assertive diplomatic efforts to avoid new barriers in the US, but it is also accelerating a diversification strategy.
Europe and Asia take centre stage in growth plans
While the US outlook is clouded, Europe remains the anchor market, taking about 70% of Brazil’s fruit exports. Brandão sees the Mercosur–European Union agreement as a key lever for competitiveness, as it promises better market conditions and, over time, lower tariffs for many agricultural products. For investors, that points to sustained demand for export-grade packing, cold-chain and certification capacity geared to EU standards.
Asia is the other leg of Abrafrutas’ growth thesis. The association expects faster opening of Asian markets and incremental sanitary approvals to support the move towards the US$2bn target. Greater penetration in Asia would reduce concentration risk in Europe, while offering higher growth potential in the medium term.
Promotion remains central. In 2025, Abrafrutas deepened its partnership with ApexBrasil, the government’s trade and investment promotion agency, to push Brazilian fruit in international fairs, business roundtables, image campaigns and structured export projects. These efforts aim to position Brazil as a reliable and sustainable supplier, and to match smaller producers with strategic buyers.
Strategically, the association wants to diversify destinations, cut dependence on a few large buyers and broaden Brazil’s presence in global fruit trade. That shift, if successful, would support more resilient earnings profiles for exporters and could justify higher valuations for companies with diversified customer books and multi-market logistics.
For investors and lenders, the next two years will be decisive. The final shape of any US tariff package, the implementation of the Mercosur–EU deal and the pace of new market openings in Asia will guide capex timing, farm-level technology upgrades and M&A. Those watching Brazil fruit exports should focus on which players secure stable access to Europe and Asia, and how quickly they rebalance away from tariff-exposed volumes in the United States.
