Conab issued the estimate on 24 September. The forecast sits 19.6% above the 2025 harvest, equivalent to approximately 4.06 million tonnes. The agency released the figures as harvesting neared completion, giving the projection greater accuracy than earlier seasonal estimates.
The upward revision — from 66.7 million bags to 67.6 million bags — reflects updated field data gathered as the crop entered its final stages. For institutional investors tracking soft commodities, the figure sets a new official benchmark for supply expectations.
Arabica drives the record
Arabica accounts for the bulk of the increase. Conab projects arabica output at 48.21 million bags in 2026, a rise of 34.8% from 2025. Favourable biennial cycle conditions and improved farm yields support the recovery.
Robusta output, by contrast, is expected to fall. Conab forecasts 19.39 million bags of robusta, down 6.6% year on year. The divergence matters because arabica and robusta serve distinct blends, export markets and price structures.
A crop weighted towards arabica limits the scale of any broad price decline across coffee categories. Buyers of lower-grade blends will find less Brazilian supply available, even as arabica volumes rise sharply.
What does the record crop mean for prices?
Larger supply typically pressures benchmark prices. Coffee futures came under pressure following Conab’s release, as market participants adjusted positions to reflect the higher production outlook.
However, the net effect on Brazilian export earnings is not straightforward. Higher shipment volumes can support foreign-currency revenue. Yet if prices fall in response, part of that revenue gain may be offset.
Producer margins face the same arithmetic. Better yields spread fixed costs across more bags, strengthening farm-level economics. A weaker benchmark price narrows that improvement.
Private forecasters see an even larger crop
Conab’s 67.6 million-bag figure is not the highest estimate in circulation. StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to 77.2 million bags on 2 September 2026, up from 75.3 million bags previously. The gap between official and private-sector estimates reflects differences in methodology, crop-timing assumptions and survey coverage.
For investors, Conab’s figure remains the primary official reference point. It shapes views on Brazilian export volumes, rural credit demand and the earnings trajectory of listed producers with coffee exposure.
South America’s dominant coffee exporter posting a record crop also carries implications beyond domestic markets. Global roasters and commodity traders will reprice forward contracts as the 2026 harvest enters commercial channels.
Watch for final harvest data, monthly export figures from Conab and Arabica futures on the ICE exchange — these will determine whether the record supply translates into sustained price pressure or whether demand absorbs the additional volume.
Quick answers
Conab forecasts Brazil’s 2026 coffee production at a record 67.6 million 60-kilogram bags, equivalent to roughly 4.06 million tonnes — the highest volume in the agency’s historical survey series.
Conab projects arabica output at 48.21 million bags in 2026, a rise of 34.8% from the 2025 harvest, driven by favourable biennial cycle conditions and improved farm yields.
StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop to 77.2 million bags on 2 September 2026, well above Conab’s official 67.6 million-bag estimate, reflecting different methodologies and survey coverage.
