Brazil and Argentina lead the surge
OPEC projects non-OPEC+ oil supply in Latin America will rise from 7.5 million barrels per day in 2025 to 9.6 million in 2030, then reach 11.6 million by 2050. Brazil remains the main engine, with output expected to climb from 3.7 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 4.4 million in 2030. It then peaks near 5.8 million in the early 2040s before easing to 5.6 million by 2050.
Argentina is the other major driver. OPEC forecasts its production will rise from 1.0 million barrels per day in 2025 to 1.3 million in 2030, then to 2.1 million by 2050. The report links that growth to Vaca Muerta, where shale development continues to anchor the country’s upstream outlook.
For investors, the message is clear. Brazil and Argentina are building long-duration supply growth while other basins mature. That gives the region a stronger role in global crude balance through the next three decades.
New frontier barrels add optionality
The report also highlights fresh non-OPEC+ supply sources beyond the two giants. In the Falkland Islands, the Sea Lion project received approval in 2025 and is expected to start production in 2028. OPEC estimates output at 50,000 barrels per day through an FPSO, with around 170 million barrels of resources targeted.
Suriname is another emerging producer. OPEC says GranMorgu should start in 2028, with nameplate capacity of 220,000 barrels per day. That makes the country a meaningful new entrant in the regional supply mix.
Venezuela also remains part of the regional picture. However, OPEC gives no formal output forecast for the country in this outlook. The report says it retains potential, which leaves room for future upside if investment conditions improve.
The wider backdrop is also constructive for supply. OPEC expects global oil demand to keep rising, reaching 124.1 million barrels per day in 2050 from 105.1 million in 2025. That strengthens the case for Latin America’s upstream pipeline, especially in deepwater and shale.
For investors, the next tests are execution, transport and capital discipline. Brazil’s pre-salt and deepwater projects, Argentina’s evacuation capacity from Vaca Muerta, and the timing of new frontier projects will shape how much of this growth turns into cash flow.
