Crop activity weakened, yet exports and freight volumes still supported demand across grain, meat and forest-product chains.
Crop Side Weakens
Cepea and CNA said crop agriculture contracted 3.62% in the quarter, while livestock grew 0.70%. The broader sector also split by segment, with GDP down 2.15% in inputs, 4.15% in primary production, 1.03% in agroindustry and 1.25% in services.
Lower producer prices were the main drag. Cepea said primary crop production fell 5.72%, even as output is expected to rise for coffee, sugarcane and soybeans. The report also noted pressure on cotton, rice, coffee, sugarcane, oranges, corn, soybeans and wheat prices.
Livestock was more stable, though still affected by pricing. The primary livestock segment fell 1.77%, despite expected production growth across the activities Cepea monitors, especially poultry and pork. That mix helps explain why livestock outperformed crops, even without a strong overall sector expansion.
Logistics Holds Up
For logistics and trade operators, the stronger signal came from services tied to animal protein and exports. Agribusiness services GDP fell 1.25% overall, but crop-linked services dropped 3.40% while livestock-linked services rose 1.86%. Livestock agroindustry also increased 1.93%, supported by higher slaughter and processing volumes for beef, pork and chicken.
Exports stayed in positive territory. Agrostat data cited by Cepea showed Brazilian agribusiness exports rose 0.52% in the first quarter from a year earlier. That still generated demand for logistics, finance, administration and foreign trade services in export-led supply chains.
Cargo movement also remained firm. Cepea cited ANTT data showing total cargo volumes rose 4.85% in the quarter. Diesel sales increased 2.89%, while ethanol sales fell 6.76%, which also points to sustained freight activity.
Cepea projected agribusiness GDP of R$3.13 trillion in 2026, split between R$1.88 trillion from crop agriculture and R$1.25 trillion from livestock. That would leave the sector with a 22.8% share of Brazil’s economy this year, down from 25.2% in 2025.
For investors, the read-through is clear: weaker crop margins can soften demand for inputs and services, but export-heavy meat, grain and forestry chains still support transport, warehousing and port activity. The next marker to watch is whether prices, credit conditions and shipping costs let livestock-led resilience spread further through the agribusiness GDP base.
